nominally, we're rounding $16 trillion, and running a $1 trillion (maybe more) deficit every year. i've actually read estimates that the true national debt is closer to $75 trillion if we include future social security liabilities.



even if we run a surplus of $1 trillion/year (sounds impossible if you ask me), that still means it'll take almost a century to pay this debt off.



so... what's gonna happen? the debt can't increase forever. it seems impossible to pay off.



one possible scenario: like eu bailouts, perhaps our creditors will require a framework soon (i.e. setting our budget/laws). a shrinking defense would be obvious... no more global cop. or, an outright revolution? it happened to the soviets.

 

We are currently able to pay our creditors as agreed and spend more than we take in. At some point, either we cut back our new spending or debt service takes more than we can raise in taxes and we cut back on new spending AND have no money to do anything.



Greece's current troubles are a possible best-case scenario. Being taken over by China because we have no money to fight off their invasion is pushing a worst-case scenario.