If election were held today (October 1st), Obama would have 98.4% chance of winning
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If election were held today (October 1st), Obama would have 98.4% chance of winning
Just go to the now-cast: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
98.4% chance of Obama victory, if election were to be held today.
(As for the current November 6th forecast, Obama has only an 85% chance of victory according to the latest update)
Still, the election will not be held today. We have 36 days left (5 weeks and a day), and Obama is known to not have the best debates (kept agreeing with and praising McCain last time, says a lot of "uhhhs" out loud as he's thinking about what he's going to say before he says it, lengthy responses usually run overtime, hasn't debated in 4 years while Romney's had more debates than any other presidential candidate in American history, etc.)
As for Senate seats... Democrats are currently favored to win in Missouri, Massachusetts, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine (AK will caucus with Democrats) and Indiana.
Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nevada are still toss-ups.
If the Republicans do lose Scott Brown's seat, Dick Lugar's seat, Olympia Snowe's seat (possibly Jon Kyl and Dean Heller's seats too)... as well as failing to beat the Democrats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, etc.) then the Democrats could actually see a net gain in the Senate.
98.4% chance of Obama victory, if election were to be held today.
(As for the current November 6th forecast, Obama has only an 85% chance of victory according to the latest update)
Still, the election will not be held today. We have 36 days left (5 weeks and a day), and Obama is known to not have the best debates (kept agreeing with and praising McCain last time, says a lot of "uhhhs" out loud as he's thinking about what he's going to say before he says it, lengthy responses usually run overtime, hasn't debated in 4 years while Romney's had more debates than any other presidential candidate in American history, etc.)
As for Senate seats... Democrats are currently favored to win in Missouri, Massachusetts, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine (AK will caucus with Democrats) and Indiana.
Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nevada are still toss-ups.
If the Republicans do lose Scott Brown's seat, Dick Lugar's seat, Olympia Snowe's seat (possibly Jon Kyl and Dean Heller's seats too)... as well as failing to beat the Democrats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, etc.) then the Democrats could actually see a net gain in the Senate.
