Climate Scientists: January Was 'Hottest' Ever
Thread Starter
Administrator
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 13,943
Likes: 0
From: ɯooɹpǝq ɹnoʎ
Vehicle: ǝdnoɔ sısǝuǝƃ
Climate Scientists: January Was 'Hottest' Ever
I know in Tennessee we were WELL BELOW averages temperatures. Avg. temps in Nashville were in the 50s... and we barely made it into the 30s most of the month. Well more than average snowfall, and every morning on the news they would express their surprise on how cold it was compare to normal temps.
Was it just Nashville, or are these damn climate nerds making sh*t up again?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Scientists: January Was 'Hottest' Ever
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/26/...anuary-hottest/
SINGAPORE -- The pace of global warming continues unabated, scientists said on Thursday, despite images of Europe crippled by a deep freeze and parts of the United States blasted by blizzards.
The bitter cold, with more intense winter weather forecast for March in parts of the United States, have led some to question if global warming has stalled.
Understanding the overall trend is crucial for estimating consumption of energy supplies, such as demand for winter heating oil in the U.S. northeast, and impacts on agricultural production.
"It's not warming the same everywhere but it is really quite challenging to find places that haven't warmed in the past 50 years," veteran Australian climate scientist Neville Nicholls told an online climate science media briefing.
"January, according to satellite (data), was the hottest January we've ever seen," said Nicholls of Monash University's School of Geography and Environmental Science in Melbourne.
"Last November was the hottest November we've ever seen, November-January as a whole is the hottest November-January the world has seen," he said of the satellite data record since 1979.
The World Meteorological Organization said in December that 2000-2009 was the hottest decade since records began in 1850, and that 2009 would likely be the fifth warmest year on record. WMO data show that eight out of the 10 hottest years on record have all been since 2000.
Britain's official forecaster, the UK Met Office, said severe winter freezes like the one this year, one of the coldest winters in the country for nearly 30 years, could become increasingly rare because of the overall warming trend.
More Extremes
Scientists say global warming is not uniform in all areas and that climate models predict there will likely be greater extremes of cold and heat, floods and droughts.
"Global warming is a trend superimposed upon natural variability, variability that still exists despite global warming," said Kevin Walsh, associate professor of meteorology at the University of Melbourne.
"It would be much more surprising if the global average temperature just kept on going up, year after year, without some years of slightly cooler temperatures," he said in a written reply to questions for the briefing.
The scientists also defended the U.N. climate panel after it came under attack for including an error about the estimated thaw of Himalayan glaciers in a major 2007 report.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produces reports based on the work of thousands of scientists that are the main guides for policymakers on tackling global warming. The discovery of the error has been seized upon by climate sceptics.
The 2007 report wrongly said Himalayan glaciers could all melt by 2035, an apparent typographical error that stemmed from using "grey literature" outside peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Nicholls said grey literature could play a key role in the climate debate and that not all valuable data or reports were published formally in journals. Such examples included reports on extreme weather events by government meteorological agencies.
"The IPCC does not exclude the use of that sort of grey literature because it would be stupid to talk about extremes, for instance, and not include that sort of grey literature," he said.
The scientists said more stringent checks were needed for the next IPCC reports but that the inclusion of one or two wrong predictions didn't undermine the whole peer-reviewed IPCC process because scientific study was always evolving.
Was it just Nashville, or are these damn climate nerds making sh*t up again?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Scientists: January Was 'Hottest' Ever
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/26/...anuary-hottest/
SINGAPORE -- The pace of global warming continues unabated, scientists said on Thursday, despite images of Europe crippled by a deep freeze and parts of the United States blasted by blizzards.
The bitter cold, with more intense winter weather forecast for March in parts of the United States, have led some to question if global warming has stalled.
Understanding the overall trend is crucial for estimating consumption of energy supplies, such as demand for winter heating oil in the U.S. northeast, and impacts on agricultural production.
"It's not warming the same everywhere but it is really quite challenging to find places that haven't warmed in the past 50 years," veteran Australian climate scientist Neville Nicholls told an online climate science media briefing.
"January, according to satellite (data), was the hottest January we've ever seen," said Nicholls of Monash University's School of Geography and Environmental Science in Melbourne.
"Last November was the hottest November we've ever seen, November-January as a whole is the hottest November-January the world has seen," he said of the satellite data record since 1979.
The World Meteorological Organization said in December that 2000-2009 was the hottest decade since records began in 1850, and that 2009 would likely be the fifth warmest year on record. WMO data show that eight out of the 10 hottest years on record have all been since 2000.
Britain's official forecaster, the UK Met Office, said severe winter freezes like the one this year, one of the coldest winters in the country for nearly 30 years, could become increasingly rare because of the overall warming trend.
More Extremes
Scientists say global warming is not uniform in all areas and that climate models predict there will likely be greater extremes of cold and heat, floods and droughts.
"Global warming is a trend superimposed upon natural variability, variability that still exists despite global warming," said Kevin Walsh, associate professor of meteorology at the University of Melbourne.
"It would be much more surprising if the global average temperature just kept on going up, year after year, without some years of slightly cooler temperatures," he said in a written reply to questions for the briefing.
The scientists also defended the U.N. climate panel after it came under attack for including an error about the estimated thaw of Himalayan glaciers in a major 2007 report.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produces reports based on the work of thousands of scientists that are the main guides for policymakers on tackling global warming. The discovery of the error has been seized upon by climate sceptics.
The 2007 report wrongly said Himalayan glaciers could all melt by 2035, an apparent typographical error that stemmed from using "grey literature" outside peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Nicholls said grey literature could play a key role in the climate debate and that not all valuable data or reports were published formally in journals. Such examples included reports on extreme weather events by government meteorological agencies.
"The IPCC does not exclude the use of that sort of grey literature because it would be stupid to talk about extremes, for instance, and not include that sort of grey literature," he said.
The scientists said more stringent checks were needed for the next IPCC reports but that the inclusion of one or two wrong predictions didn't undermine the whole peer-reviewed IPCC process because scientific study was always evolving.
Thread Starter
Administrator
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 13,943
Likes: 0
From: ɯooɹpǝq ɹnoʎ
Vehicle: ǝdnoɔ sısǝuǝƃ
I noticed that also... 30 years, BAH!!
I don't think G.W. was our greatest prez by any stretch, but I shudder to think where we'd be if Al Gore became Prez. We'd be running gas with 25% ethanol in all vehicles without exception, and when we complain that it's killing our engines and hindering performance, they'd respond with, "Good, when your car dies you'll have no choice other than replacing it with a Prius."
I believe America got lucky in the lesser of two evils.
I don't think G.W. was our greatest prez by any stretch, but I shudder to think where we'd be if Al Gore became Prez. We'd be running gas with 25% ethanol in all vehicles without exception, and when we complain that it's killing our engines and hindering performance, they'd respond with, "Good, when your car dies you'll have no choice other than replacing it with a Prius."
I believe America got lucky in the lesser of two evils.
Moderator
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 7,166
Likes: 6
From: San Antonio, TEXAS!!!
Vehicle: 01 Tiburon Turbo, 99 Tiburon F2E, 2013 Avalon XLE Touring
We normally see 30 degrees like 2-3 days in the year. This winter has been in the 30's quite a bit more. It's even dipped into the 20's a couple times. Then there's the abnormal rain we've seen recently. Since October we've seen rain almost every week.
Administrator
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 12,515
Likes: 2
From: Lacey, WA
Vehicle: Two Accents, Mini, Miata, Van, Outback, and a ZX-6
Well, it has been abnormally warm here overall, but last year was abnormally cold.
30 years of data is NOTHING. There are many weather cycles that are known to take more than 30 years to complete, not to mention the weather cycles that we don't even know about or the inherent variability of the climate in general.
Mars has warmed by about the same amount as the Earth has since satellite monitoring of both planets was available to compare. Solar output has increased significantly since measurements have started.
We are currently in an interglacial cycle. These are brief times between ice ages. In other words, ice ages are normal, we are in an unusual period of time. Interglacial cycles generally last just a few tens of thousands of years. We have been in one of the longer interglacial periods in the last 500k years. It literally could turn around at any time and we could head towards another ice age.
Global warming is not necessarily a good thing, but the Earth does not have a static climate. We probably have only a small effect on the climate, much less so than the natural cycles the Earth would experience if there were no people. What's worse though? Global warming or an ice age? I would say an ice age would be hundreds of times worse.
30 years of data is NOTHING. There are many weather cycles that are known to take more than 30 years to complete, not to mention the weather cycles that we don't even know about or the inherent variability of the climate in general.
Mars has warmed by about the same amount as the Earth has since satellite monitoring of both planets was available to compare. Solar output has increased significantly since measurements have started.
We are currently in an interglacial cycle. These are brief times between ice ages. In other words, ice ages are normal, we are in an unusual period of time. Interglacial cycles generally last just a few tens of thousands of years. We have been in one of the longer interglacial periods in the last 500k years. It literally could turn around at any time and we could head towards another ice age.
Global warming is not necessarily a good thing, but the Earth does not have a static climate. We probably have only a small effect on the climate, much less so than the natural cycles the Earth would experience if there were no people. What's worse though? Global warming or an ice age? I would say an ice age would be hundreds of times worse.
Senior Member
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,932
Likes: 0
From: Boston
Vehicle: 2006 Pontiac GTO
Global warming is a business of a few degrees overall change, you won't be able to feel that directly.. the point is that a small change in overall temperature can bring about BIG shifts in weather patterns everywhere because all the winds and climate systems and whatnot are interdependent.
For example, because it's warmer in some places, more water will evaporate from the oceans, and after winds move all that vapors, you can get a ton more - guess what? - SNOW than you would normally get.
"Oh, we got snow in Texas, global warming must be a quack" <= aren't you friggin worried that you got snow in Texas, moron? Why do you think that is? "Global warming' doesn't mean that every guy on earth will be 2 degrees warmer than usual (who the hell would care), it means something might be changing a lot and change is usually bad when it comes to weather patterns. It's an unfortunate name past which many people do not see, it should be "severe weather pattern change" or something.
I'm not by any means saying that it's necessarily human caused, or avoidable, but the evidence that it is happening, and that it could be dangerous, is there. And most people have to agree that the TON of crap 6 billion people and our massive industries are dumping in our atmosphere will eventually catch up to us.
I also refuse to make my own pseudo-scientific assertions based on internet or news articles and whatnot (or based on how much snow i saw from my window in the past month); so I just go with the "opinion" of mainstream _science_. If I would care more about it I would try to find, read and understand the more important research reviews etc. that appear in peer-reviewed journals, not read articles wrote by random douches who don't understand half of the words they are reproducing (this is not a stab at anyone or anything posted in this thread, just frustrated with how much crap is out there).
For example, because it's warmer in some places, more water will evaporate from the oceans, and after winds move all that vapors, you can get a ton more - guess what? - SNOW than you would normally get.
"Oh, we got snow in Texas, global warming must be a quack" <= aren't you friggin worried that you got snow in Texas, moron? Why do you think that is? "Global warming' doesn't mean that every guy on earth will be 2 degrees warmer than usual (who the hell would care), it means something might be changing a lot and change is usually bad when it comes to weather patterns. It's an unfortunate name past which many people do not see, it should be "severe weather pattern change" or something.
I'm not by any means saying that it's necessarily human caused, or avoidable, but the evidence that it is happening, and that it could be dangerous, is there. And most people have to agree that the TON of crap 6 billion people and our massive industries are dumping in our atmosphere will eventually catch up to us.
I also refuse to make my own pseudo-scientific assertions based on internet or news articles and whatnot (or based on how much snow i saw from my window in the past month); so I just go with the "opinion" of mainstream _science_. If I would care more about it I would try to find, read and understand the more important research reviews etc. that appear in peer-reviewed journals, not read articles wrote by random douches who don't understand half of the words they are reproducing (this is not a stab at anyone or anything posted in this thread, just frustrated with how much crap is out there).
Thread Starter
Administrator
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 13,943
Likes: 0
From: ɯooɹpǝq ɹnoʎ
Vehicle: ǝdnoɔ sısǝuǝƃ
but radu... "hottest January ever" doesn't really make a lot of sense. There have been obvious flaws in these damn reports put out by climatologists lately. They just don't make sense.
And I agree, we need to limit the pollution and start trying to clean up our wastes. I also see how climate changes in one area cause adverse reactions in other locations. "Global warming" could be causing the lower than normal temps, I can see that making sense, but to say it was the "hottest january ever" when Europe and most of North America experienced the opposite, it just doesn't make much sense.
lol... and don't get me started on their typo of glaciers rapidly disappearing at a rate of xxx by 2035 instead of 2350.
And I agree, we need to limit the pollution and start trying to clean up our wastes. I also see how climate changes in one area cause adverse reactions in other locations. "Global warming" could be causing the lower than normal temps, I can see that making sense, but to say it was the "hottest january ever" when Europe and most of North America experienced the opposite, it just doesn't make much sense.
lol... and don't get me started on their typo of glaciers rapidly disappearing at a rate of xxx by 2035 instead of 2350.